{"id":24296,"date":"2026-07-17T11:15:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T11:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/?p=24296"},"modified":"2026-07-17T11:15:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T11:15:27","slug":"results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Research Funding Should Follow Results, Not Promises"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"scien-2435150696\" class=\"scien-before-content scien-entity-placement\"><style>\r\n.amazon-support-link {\r\n    display: inline-flex;\r\n    align-items: baseline;\r\n    gap: 0.3rem;\r\n    padding: 0.35rem 0.55rem;\r\n    color: inherit;\r\n    font-size: 0.88rem;\r\n    line-height: 1.2;\r\n    text-decoration: none;\r\n    opacity: 0.72;\r\n    white-space: nowrap;\r\n    transition: opacity 0.2s ease;\r\n}\r\n\r\n.amazon-support-link:hover,\r\n.amazon-support-link:focus-visible {\r\n    opacity: 1;\r\n    text-decoration: underline;\r\n}\r\n\r\n.amazon-support-link small {\r\n    font-size: 0.65rem;\r\n    opacity: 0.7;\r\n}\r\n\r\n@media (max-width: 900px) {\r\n    .amazon-support-link small {\r\n        display: none;\r\n    }\r\n}\r\n<\/style>\r\n<a class=\"amazon-support-link\"\r\n   href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/?tag=vpf04-20\"\r\n   target=\"_blank\"\r\n   rel=\"nofollow sponsored noopener\"\r\n   aria-label=\"Shop on Amazon and support World Science DAO\">\r\n    Shop on Amazon <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span>\r\n    <small>affiliate link<\/small>\r\n<\/a><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most research funding is distributed before the funded work exists. Scientists submit proposals describing what they expect to discover, how they plan to proceed, and why their future work deserves support. Committees then allocate money on the basis of those promises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This model is sometimes necessary. Laboratories cannot purchase equipment, hire researchers, or conduct expensive experiments without advance capital. But prospective grants have a fundamental limitation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A research proposal is evidence of planning and persuasive writing\u2014not evidence that the proposed scientific result will actually be produced.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive funding reverses the sequence. Instead of attempting to predict which proposal will succeed, it rewards research after useful outputs become visible. Milestone funding and prize funding occupy intermediate positions: they connect payments to predefined achievements, but differ in when recipients are selected and what evidence is evaluated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The strongest research-funding system is therefore unlikely to use only one mechanism. It should combine:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>traditional grants<\/strong> where substantial advance resources are unavoidable;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>milestone funding<\/strong> where progress can be divided into verifiable stages;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>prize funding<\/strong> where a clear problem can support open competition;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>retroactive funding<\/strong> where outputs, use, reproducibility, and impact can be evaluated after publication.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/aifunding\/\">AI Internet-Meritocracy (AIIM)<\/a> is intended to make the last model scalable. Rather than treating a grant proposal as the main unit of merit, AIIM could continuously evaluate completed scientific contributions and distribute funding according to accumulated evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseprofile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#What_Is_Traditional_Grant_Funding\" >What Is Traditional Grant Funding?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Why_Funding_Promises_Is_Difficult\" >Why Funding Promises Is Difficult<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Proposal_quality_is_not_identical_to_scientific_quality\" >Proposal quality is not identical to scientific quality<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Prospective_funding_can_favor_predictable_work\" >Prospective funding can favor predictable work<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#What_Is_Milestone_Funding\" >What Is Milestone Funding?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Advantages_of_milestone_funding\" >Advantages of milestone funding<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Limitations_of_milestone_funding\" >Limitations of milestone funding<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#What_Is_Prize_Funding\" >What Is Prize Funding?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Advantages_of_prize_funding\" >Advantages of prize funding<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Limitations_of_prize_funding\" >Limitations of prize funding<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#What_Is_Retroactive_Research_Funding\" >What Is Retroactive Research Funding?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Retroactive_funding_is_broader_than_prizes\" >Retroactive funding is broader than prizes<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Traditional_Grants_vs_Retroactive_Funding\" >Traditional Grants vs Retroactive Funding<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Milestone_Funding_vs_Retroactive_Funding\" >Milestone Funding vs Retroactive Funding<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Milestone_funding\" >Milestone funding<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Retroactive_funding\" >Retroactive funding<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-17\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Prize_Funding_vs_Retroactive_Funding\" >Prize Funding vs Retroactive Funding<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-18\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Complete_Comparison_of_the_Four_Funding_Models\" >Complete Comparison of the Four Funding Models<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-19\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Which_Research_Funding_Model_Works_Best\" >Which Research Funding Model Works Best?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-20\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Use_traditional_grants_when_resources_must_come_first\" >Use traditional grants when resources must come first<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-21\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Use_milestone_funding_when_progress_can_be_verified_in_stages\" >Use milestone funding when progress can be verified in stages<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-22\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Use_prizes_when_the_target_is_clear_but_the_solution_is_unknown\" >Use prizes when the target is clear but the solution is unknown<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-23\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Use_retroactive_funding_when_valuable_outputs_cannot_be_predicted\" >Use retroactive funding when valuable outputs cannot be predicted<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-24\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Why_Retroactive_Funding_Alone_Is_Not_Enough\" >Why Retroactive Funding Alone Is Not Enough<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-25\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#How_AIIM_Could_Implement_Retroactive_Research_Funding\" >How AIIM Could Implement Retroactive Research Funding<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-26\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#AIIM_as_More_Than_a_Scientific_Prize\" >AIIM as More Than a Scientific Prize<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-27\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Can_AI_Evaluation_Replace_Human_Judgment\" >Can AI Evaluation Replace Human Judgment?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-28\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#A_Hybrid_Funding_Architecture_for_Science\" >A Hybrid Funding Architecture for Science<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-29\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Layer_1_Seed_and_infrastructure_grants\" >Layer 1: Seed and infrastructure grants<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-30\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Layer_2_Milestone_payments\" >Layer 2: Milestone payments<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-31\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Layer_3_Open_prizes\" >Layer 3: Open prizes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-32\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Layer_4_AI-assisted_retroactive_rewards\" >Layer 4: AI-assisted retroactive rewards<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-33\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Funding_Results_Changes_Research_Incentives\" >Funding Results Changes Research Incentives<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-34\" href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/results\/#Conclusion_Fund_Promises_When_Necessary_Results_Whenever_Possible\" >Conclusion: Fund Promises When Necessary, Results Whenever Possible<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_Traditional_Grant_Funding\"><\/span>What Is Traditional Grant Funding?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traditional grant funding is <strong>prospective funding<\/strong>: money is allocated before most or all of the proposed research has been completed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A typical process includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>publication of a funding opportunity;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>submission of research proposals;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>peer or administrative review;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>selection of recipients;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>disbursement of funds;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>progress reporting and post-award oversight.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US National Institutes of Health describes its grant process as extending from planning and application through award administration and post-award reporting. In other words, the central funding decision is made before the expected research results are available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This system finances work that might otherwise be impossible. It is especially important for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>clinical trials;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>laboratory construction;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>telescope or accelerator access;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>field expeditions;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>long-term data collection;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>salaries for full-time research teams;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>expensive materials and instrumentation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traditional grants are not inherently defective. The problem arises when <strong>prospective selection becomes the dominant mechanism for nearly every kind of research<\/strong>, including work that can be evaluated more accurately after results appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Funding_Promises_Is_Difficult\"><\/span>Why Funding Promises Is Difficult<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A proposal asks reviewers to estimate several uncertain quantities simultaneously:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>whether the hypothesis is sound;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether the methodology will work;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether the researchers can execute it;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether the results will be important;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether another approach would produce more value;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether the requested budget is proportionate;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether the applicant\u2019s description is realistic rather than strategically optimistic.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even highly competent reviewers cannot observe the future. They must use imperfect proxies such as institutional affiliation, previous publications, preliminary results, recommendation letters, writing quality, and conformity with an established research agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Proposal_quality_is_not_identical_to_scientific_quality\"><\/span>Proposal quality is not identical to scientific quality<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Successful proposal writing requires its own specialized skills. Applicants must understand the language, priorities, formatting rules, and strategic expectations of a funding institution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These skills may correlate with research competence, but the correlation is incomplete. A researcher can be exceptionally good at mathematics, experimentation, software development, or conceptual synthesis while being relatively weak at:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>presenting speculative work as a predictable project;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>describing uncertain discoveries as scheduled deliverables;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>fitting unconventional research into established categories;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>maintaining institutional networks;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>producing polished grant narratives.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, a persuasive proposal may fail to generate important results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The resulting system risks allocating money partly according to the ability to <strong>market future science<\/strong>, rather than according to the value of science actually produced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prospective_funding_can_favor_predictable_work\"><\/span>Prospective funding can favor predictable work<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reviewers are accountable for their recommendations. When outcomes are uncertain, choosing a conventional project from an established institution can appear safer than supporting an unfamiliar researcher or a highly unorthodox idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This does not mean that peer reviewers deliberately suppress innovation. It means that the incentive structure can reward defensible selections. A proposal closely connected to accepted literature is easier to justify than one proposing a new conceptual framework that reviewers cannot yet evaluate confidently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traditional grants may therefore produce a paradox:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The more radically new a discovery would be, the less evidence may exist in advance that the proposed route will succeed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_Milestone_Funding\"><\/span>What Is Milestone Funding?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone funding releases money when a recipient completes specified stages of a project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A milestone normally includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>a defined deliverable;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>completion criteria;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a deadline;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>an associated payment;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a verification procedure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DARPA\u2019s instructions for certain research agreements require milestones to specify a description, completion criteria, due date, and payment or funding schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Examples of research milestones could include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>producing a validated prototype;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>completing recruitment for a study;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>publishing a dataset under an open licence;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>demonstrating a specified measurement accuracy;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>passing an independent replication test;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>releasing documented research software;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>completing a preclinical study.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone funding reduces some of the risk of a fully upfront grant. The funder does not need to release the entire budget before observing progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the initial project and recipient are still usually selected prospectively. The funder must still predict which team is likely to succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Advantages_of_milestone_funding\"><\/span>Advantages of milestone funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone funding provides:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>stronger accountability than an unconditional upfront payment;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>earlier detection of failed approaches;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>clearer expectations;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>reduced financial exposure;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>opportunities to revise or terminate an underperforming project;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>incentives to produce concrete intermediate outputs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Limitations_of_milestone_funding\"><\/span>Limitations of milestone funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestones can also distort research when they are defined too rigidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scientific investigation is not always linear. An unexpected negative result, failed experiment, or conceptual redirection may be more scientifically valuable than completion of the original deliverable. A team that follows the evidence could technically fail a milestone, while a team that optimizes for the contractual target could receive payment without producing comparable knowledge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestones work best when:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>outputs can be defined objectively;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the development path is reasonably understood;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the project is engineering-oriented;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>deliverables can be independently tested;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>changes in direction can be approved without excessive bureaucracy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They work less well for exploratory mathematics, foundational theory, open-ended discovery, and research where the important result cannot be predicted in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_Prize_Funding\"><\/span>What Is Prize Funding?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize funding offers a reward for solving a specified problem or satisfying defined performance criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unlike a traditional grant, a prize does not necessarily select one recipient before work begins. Multiple researchers or teams may attempt the challenge, while the reward is paid only to qualifying participants or winners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Government and scientific institutions already use variations of this approach. For example, the US National Science Foundation\u2019s VITAL Prize Challenge used several competitive stages, prototype development, evaluation, and final awards. Some finalists also received development funding before the final prizes were decided, making the program a hybrid of staged and prize-based funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Advantages_of_prize_funding\"><\/span>Advantages of prize funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize competitions can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>attract participants outside conventional academic networks;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>define a concrete target;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>encourage parallel approaches;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>pay primarily for demonstrated performance;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>reveal unexpected solutions;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>reduce the need to predict the winning team in advance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prizes are especially useful when a funder knows <strong>what outcome is needed<\/strong> but does not know <strong>who can produce it or which method will work<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Limitations_of_prize_funding\"><\/span>Limitations of prize funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prizes transfer substantial risk to participants. Researchers may need to finance unsuccessful attempts themselves. This favors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>well-capitalized laboratories;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>companies with existing infrastructure;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>researchers who can work without immediate compensation;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>teams able to attract external investors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A winner-takes-all design can also underreward valuable partial advances. Several teams may create useful methods, datasets, proofs, or tools even though only one receives the principal prize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize funding is therefore not equivalent to general retroactive funding. A prize usually defines the desired result in advance. Retroactive funding can reward outputs whose importance was not anticipated when the work began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_Retroactive_Research_Funding\"><\/span>What Is Retroactive Research Funding?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive funding allocates money after a scientific contribution has been produced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The contribution might be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>a research paper;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a theorem or proof;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a dataset;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>open-source scientific software;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>an experimental protocol;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a replication study;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a negative result;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a literature synthesis;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a correction of an influential error;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a reusable scientific instrument;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a new conceptual framework.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The funder evaluates evidence that already exists rather than relying primarily on forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This changes the central question from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhich applicant promises the most valuable future project?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhich completed contributions have created the most verified scientific value?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Retroactive_funding_is_broader_than_prizes\"><\/span>Retroactive funding is broader than prizes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize funding normally begins with a declared challenge. Retroactive funding does not require the funder to specify the winning discovery beforehand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This distinction is crucial for basic science. Many important discoveries cannot be commissioned through precise challenge statements because nobody yet knows what form the discovery will take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A retroactive system can recognize:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>an unexpected theorem;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a method that becomes useful across several disciplines;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>software that gradually becomes critical research infrastructure;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a neglected result whose significance becomes visible years later;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>an independent researcher whose work was initially overlooked;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a negative finding that prevents others from wasting resources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive funding is therefore particularly suitable for <strong>open-ended and decentralized discovery<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Traditional_Grants_vs_Retroactive_Funding\"><\/span>Traditional Grants vs Retroactive Funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Criterion<\/th><th>Traditional grants<\/th><th>Retroactive funding<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Main evaluation object<\/td><td>Proposal and applicant<\/td><td>Completed contribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Funding time<\/td><td>Before results<\/td><td>After results<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Primary evidence<\/td><td>Plans, credentials, preliminary work<\/td><td>Outputs, validation, use and impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prediction required<\/td><td>High<\/td><td>Lower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capital available before work<\/td><td>Yes<\/td><td>Usually no<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Access for independent researchers<\/td><td>Often limited<\/td><td>Potentially broader<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk to funder<\/td><td>Pays for possible failure<\/td><td>Pays after evidence appears<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk to researcher<\/td><td>Lower after award<\/td><td>Higher before recognition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Suitable for expensive experiments<\/td><td>Strong<\/td><td>Weak without complementary capital<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Suitable for unexpected discoveries<\/td><td>Limited<\/td><td>Strong<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Administrative emphasis<\/td><td>Application and compliance<\/td><td>Evaluation and attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Main gaming risk<\/td><td>Proposal gaming<\/td><td>Metric and attribution gaming<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The comparison does not establish that retroactive funding should eliminate grants. It shows that the two mechanisms solve different problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traditional grants answer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Who should receive resources to attempt costly future work?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive funding answers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Who has already created scientific value that deserves compensation and reinvestment?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A mature system needs both questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Milestone_Funding_vs_Retroactive_Funding\"><\/span>Milestone Funding vs Retroactive Funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone and retroactive funding both connect payment to observable work, but they differ in scope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Milestone_funding\"><\/span>Milestone funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>selects the project in advance;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>defines expected outputs in advance;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>pays according to contractual stages;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>works well for planned development;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>may penalize scientifically useful changes in direction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Retroactive_funding\"><\/span>Retroactive funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>can evaluate contributions that were never preselected;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>does not require all valuable outputs to be predicted;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>can compare work across projects and institutions;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>can reward unexpected discoveries;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>requires robust post-publication assessment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone funding is best understood as <strong>conditional prospective funding<\/strong>. Retroactive funding is <strong>open-ended retrospective allocation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prize_Funding_vs_Retroactive_Funding\"><\/span>Prize Funding vs Retroactive Funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize and retroactive funding both reward completed performance, but a prize generally has:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>a predetermined problem;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>predetermined eligibility rules;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>explicit success criteria;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a fixed reward pool;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a competition deadline;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a limited number of winners.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive funding can be continuous rather than episodic. It can distribute many smaller rewards across a network of contributors instead of selecting one winner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, a prize might reward the first team to produce a specified diagnostic technology. A retroactive system might separately reward:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>the underlying statistical method;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the open dataset;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the replication work;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the implementation library;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the clinical validation;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the documentation;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>later improvements;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>researchers who identify limitations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize funding identifies a winner. Retroactive funding can model an <strong>ecosystem of contribution<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Complete_Comparison_of_the_Four_Funding_Models\"><\/span>Complete Comparison of the Four Funding Models<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Feature<\/th><th>Traditional grants<\/th><th>Milestone funding<\/th><th>Prize funding<\/th><th>Retroactive funding<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Recipient selected before work<\/td><td>Yes<\/td><td>Yes<\/td><td>Usually no<\/td><td>No<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Output defined before work<\/td><td>Broadly<\/td><td>Precisely<\/td><td>Precisely<\/td><td>Not necessarily<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Payment before completion<\/td><td>Usually<\/td><td>Partly<\/td><td>Usually no<\/td><td>No<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Supports initial costs<\/td><td>Strongly<\/td><td>Moderately<\/td><td>Weakly<\/td><td>Weakly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rewards unexpected results<\/td><td>Sometimes<\/td><td>Poorly to moderately<\/td><td>Poorly<\/td><td>Strongly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Encourages multiple approaches<\/td><td>Limited<\/td><td>Limited<\/td><td>Strongly<\/td><td>Strongly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Can reward partial contributions<\/td><td>Yes<\/td><td>Yes, if defined<\/td><td>Often limited<\/td><td>Yes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Requires proposal review<\/td><td>Extensive<\/td><td>Extensive<\/td><td>Limited or staged<\/td><td>Minimal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Requires post-result evaluation<\/td><td>Moderate<\/td><td>Strong<\/td><td>Strong<\/td><td>Very strong<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Best use<\/td><td>Resource-intensive uncertain work<\/td><td>Verifiable development stages<\/td><td>Clearly defined challenges<\/td><td>Open-ended completed contributions<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_Research_Funding_Model_Works_Best\"><\/span>Which Research Funding Model Works Best?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is no universally superior mechanism. The best model depends on the type of uncertainty involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Use_traditional_grants_when_resources_must_come_first\"><\/span>Use traditional grants when resources must come first<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prospective grants remain essential when researchers cannot reasonably begin without substantial funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Examples include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>constructing research facilities;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>running clinical trials;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>maintaining long-term observatories;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>conducting expensive biological experiments;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>collecting data over many years;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>supporting researchers in fields without outside income.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In such cases, \u201cfund only completed results\u201d would exclude capable scientists who lack personal or institutional capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Use_milestone_funding_when_progress_can_be_verified_in_stages\"><\/span>Use milestone funding when progress can be verified in stages<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone funding is appropriate when a project has a discernible path but the funder wants to limit exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is particularly suitable for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>translational research;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>prototype development;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>scientific engineering;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>infrastructure deployment;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>benchmark-driven AI research;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>instrument construction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Use_prizes_when_the_target_is_clear_but_the_solution_is_unknown\"><\/span>Use prizes when the target is clear but the solution is unknown<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prize funding works best when:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>success can be tested objectively;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>many teams can attempt different methods;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the problem is important enough to attract participation;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the target does not prescribe the scientific route;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>unsuccessful attempts do not require unsustainable expenditure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Use_retroactive_funding_when_valuable_outputs_cannot_be_predicted\"><\/span>Use retroactive funding when valuable outputs cannot be predicted<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive funding is strongest for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>basic mathematics;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>theoretical research;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>open-source scientific software;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>replication and verification;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>independent scholarship;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>interdisciplinary synthesis;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>unexpected discoveries;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>contributions that acquire value through later use.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These areas often produce outputs that are difficult to describe convincingly before they exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Retroactive_Funding_Alone_Is_Not_Enough\"><\/span>Why Retroactive Funding Alone Is Not Enough<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A purely retroactive system creates a financing gap. Researchers still need food, housing, equipment, computing, laboratory access, and time before their results can be evaluated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It may also favor researchers who already possess:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>university salaries;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>personal savings;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>institutional infrastructure;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>commercial revenue;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>wealthy sponsors;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>substantial volunteer communities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, retroactive funding should not be presented as a complete replacement for prospective capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A more defensible principle is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Research funding should follow results whenever results can already be evaluated, while advance funding should be reserved for work that genuinely cannot proceed without it.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retroactive rewards can also finance future research indirectly. A researcher who is rewarded for one completed contribution gains resources to pursue the next project without writing a conventional proposal. In this way, retrospective payment becomes prospective scientific capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_AIIM_Could_Implement_Retroactive_Research_Funding\"><\/span>How AIIM Could Implement Retroactive Research Funding<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM proposes an automated and continuously updated funding mechanism for scientific and open-source contributions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rather than organizing all funding around occasional grant competitions, AIIM could evaluate published outputs using multiple forms of evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Potential evaluation dimensions include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>scientific validity;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>novelty;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>reproducibility;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>methodological rigor;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>usefulness to later research;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>quality of data and code;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>successful independent replication;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>correction of previous errors;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>downstream adoption;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>contribution to public scientific infrastructure;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>expert criticism and responses;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>uncertainty in the evaluation itself.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM would not need to declare that an output has one final, permanent value. Evaluations could change as evidence accumulates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>a paper receives an initial evaluation;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>independent researchers inspect its reasoning or experiments;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>replications increase or decrease confidence;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>software dependencies reveal practical utility;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>later papers confirm, refine, or reject its claims;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>funding is adjusted according to the updated evidence.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This creates a model of <strong>continuous post-publication funding<\/strong> rather than a single grant decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/horizon-europe\/\">comparison between AIIM and Horizon Europe<\/a> describes a related distinction: conventional programs operate through calls, applications, work packages, and grant agreements, while AIIM could use continuous micro-funding and retroactive rewards as evidence develops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"AIIM_as_More_Than_a_Scientific_Prize\"><\/span>AIIM as More Than a Scientific Prize<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM can resemble a scientific prize because it rewards achievement rather than rhetoric. However, it differs from a conventional prize in several ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A traditional prize normally:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>addresses one predefined challenge;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>has a closing date;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>selects one or several winners;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>distributes a predetermined sum;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ends after the competition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM could instead:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>evaluate contributions across many scientific fields;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>operate continuously;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>distribute proportional rewards;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>revisit earlier assessments;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>recognize dependencies among contributions;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>reward both visible breakthroughs and supporting infrastructure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Science DAO article <a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/scientific-prize\/\">\u201cAIIM Is an Automated Scientific Prize\u201d<\/a> describes AIIM as combining retrospective recognition with ongoing research incentives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The critical difference is that AIIM would not merely award a trophy-sized payment to a small number of famous discoveries. It could make retroactive evaluation part of the ordinary economic infrastructure of science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Can_AI_Evaluation_Replace_Human_Judgment\"><\/span>Can AI Evaluation Replace Human Judgment?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No funding mechanism becomes objective merely because it uses AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An AI system can inherit errors from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>training data;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>publication bias;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>citation patterns;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>incomplete scientific records;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>prestige-correlated language;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>manipulated benchmarks;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>coordinated voting;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>fabricated papers;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>hidden conflicts of interest;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>poorly specified evaluation criteria.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM should therefore not be described as an infallible scientific judge. Its advantage would need to come from <strong>auditable procedure<\/strong>, not presumed machine superiority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A credible implementation would require:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>transparent evaluation criteria;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>uncertainty estimates;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>evidence-linked explanations;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>adversarial testing;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>appeal mechanisms;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>independent replication;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>plural models or agents;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>safeguards against prompt gaming;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>human review for high-impact decisions;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>public records of major scoring changes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The goal is not to eliminate judgment. It is to make funding judgments more continuous, evidence-based, inspectable, and correctable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_Hybrid_Funding_Architecture_for_Science\"><\/span>A Hybrid Funding Architecture for Science<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most effective architecture would connect all four mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Layer_1_Seed_and_infrastructure_grants\"><\/span>Layer 1: Seed and infrastructure grants<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Small prospective grants provide researchers with minimum starting resources. Larger grants remain available for capital-intensive work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Layer_2_Milestone_payments\"><\/span>Layer 2: Milestone payments<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Projects with identifiable development paths receive additional funding after verified intermediate outputs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Layer_3_Open_prizes\"><\/span>Layer 3: Open prizes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clearly defined technical or scientific challenges invite competing solutions from any qualified participant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Layer_4_AI-assisted_retroactive_rewards\"><\/span>Layer 4: AI-assisted retroactive rewards<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Completed papers, datasets, proofs, software, replications, and other contributions receive continuous evaluation and proportional funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This structure avoids two extreme errors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>funding everything on the basis of promises;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>expecting researchers to finance all socially valuable work themselves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It also gives researchers several routes to support. A person excluded from a traditional grant may still qualify through a milestone program, win an open challenge, or receive retroactive rewards for completed work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Funding_Results_Changes_Research_Incentives\"><\/span>Funding Results Changes Research Incentives<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A proposal-centered system tells researchers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Predict what funders will consider promising.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A results-centered system tells researchers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Produce work that survives examination and becomes useful.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That difference could affect scientific behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Results-based funding can encourage researchers to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>publish usable data;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>release code;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>document methods;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>conduct replications;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>correct mistakes;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>develop shared infrastructure;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>pursue neglected problems;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>make outputs easier to verify;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>create work that remains valuable beyond a grant period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, poorly designed metrics could replace proposal gaming with output gaming. Researchers might optimize for superficial indicators such as raw citation counts, repository stars, publication volume, or AI-generated assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM must therefore evaluate <strong>structured evidence<\/strong>, not a single popularity metric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion_Fund_Promises_When_Necessary_Results_Whenever_Possible\"><\/span>Conclusion: Fund Promises When Necessary, Results Whenever Possible<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traditional grants solve a real problem: many forms of research require resources before they can produce evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the grant model is often asked to solve a different problem for which it is poorly suited\u2014determining the value of work that has already been completed. Once outputs exist, continuing to allocate rewards primarily through new promises wastes available evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Milestone funding improves accountability by tying payments to predefined progress. Prize funding allows open competition around defined goals. Retroactive funding goes further by rewarding valuable contributions even when their form or significance could not have been predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The appropriate principle is not \u201cabolish all grants.\u201d It is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Use prospective funding to provide necessary research capacity, but use retroactive funding to reward demonstrated scientific value.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AIIM could make this division practical at scale. By evaluating completed contributions continuously, transparently, and across institutional boundaries, it could help research funding follow results\u2014not merely the ability to promise them.<\/p>\n<div id=\"scien-144119299\" class=\"scien-after-content scien-entity-placement\"><section>\r\n\r\n<h2>Support Independent Science<\/h2>\r\n\r\n<p>Supporting independent science is not only a matter of fairness to researchers whose expertise and work are often underfunded. It is also essential for addressing <a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/who-are-science-marketers\/\">systemic failures in scientific publishing<\/a> that delay discoveries and leave important results unnoticed. In science and software, even one missing component can prevent an entire system from working.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>Help valuable research and open-source infrastructure move forward.<\/strong> Please <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/donation\/\">make a donation<\/a><\/strong> to support <a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/amateur-scientists\/\">independent scientists<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/free-software\/\">free software developers<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>\r\n\t\tOur flagship product is <a href=\"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/meritocracy\/\">AI Internet-Meritocracy<\/a> - an app, that unlike universities distributes money directly to researchers and open source developers, without bureaucracy.\r\n<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/section><\/div><div id=\"scien-3779773052\" class=\"scien-after-content-2 scien-entity-placement\"><div data-nosnippet style=\"max-width: 800px\">\r\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0\">Ads:<\/p>\r\n<style>\r\n    \/* Compact Table Styling *\/\r\n    .amazon-ad-table {\r\n        width: 100%;\r\n        max-width: 800px;\r\n        border-collapse: collapse;\r\n        margin: 10px auto;\r\n        font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\r\n        border: 1px solid #e0e0e0;\r\n    }\r\n    .amazon-ad-table th {\r\n        background-color: #f3f3f3;\r\n        padding: 8px;\r\n        text-align: left;\r\n        border-bottom: 2px solid #ddd;\r\n        font-size: 0.9em;\r\n    }\r\n    .amazon-ad-table td {\r\n        padding: 8px 5px;\r\n        border-bottom: 1px solid #e0e0e0;\r\n        vertical-align: middle;\r\n    }\r\n    \/* Column sizing *\/\r\n    .col-image { width: 15%; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; padding-top: 10px; }\r\n    .col-desc { width: 65%; }\r\n    .col-action { width: 20%; text-align: center; }\r\n\r\n    \/* Image Placeholder Styling *\/\r\n    \/* YOU WILL REPLACE THIS ENTIRE BLOCK WHEN YOU INSERT REAL AMAZON CODE *\/\r\n    .img-placeholder {\r\n        width: 80px;\r\n        height: 110px;\r\n        background-color: #eee;\r\n        border: 1px solid #ddd;\r\n        color: #666;\r\n        font-size: 0.7em;\r\n        display: flex;\r\n        justify-content: center;\r\n        align-items: center;\r\n        margin: 0 auto;\r\n        text-align: center;\r\n    }\r\n    \r\n    \/* Typography - Smaller fonts and tighter line heights *\/\r\n    .product-title {\r\n        font-size: 1em;\r\n        font-weight: bold;\r\n        color: #007185;\r\n        text-decoration: none;\r\n        display: block;\r\n        margin-bottom: 2px;\r\n    }\r\n    .product-title:hover { color: #C7511F; text-decoration: underline; }\r\n    .product-author { \r\n        color: #565959; \r\n        font-size: 0.8em; \r\n        margin-bottom: 4px; \r\n    }\r\n    .product-blurb { \r\n        font-size: 0.85em; \r\n        line-height: 1.25;\r\n        color: #333; \r\n        margin: 0;\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    \/* Compact Button Styling *\/\r\n    .amazon-button {\r\n        display: inline-block;\r\n        background-color: #FFD814;\r\n        border: 1px solid #FCD200;\r\n        border-radius: 20px;\r\n        color: #0F1111;\r\n        padding: 6px 10px;\r\n        text-align: center;\r\n        text-decoration: none;\r\n        font-size: 0.8em;\r\n        font-weight: bold;\r\n        box-shadow: 0 2px 5px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);\r\n        transition: background-color 0.2s;\r\n        white-space: nowrap;\r\n    }\r\n    .amazon-button:hover { background-color: #F7CA00; border-color: #F2C200; cursor: pointer;}\r\n\r\n    \/* Disclosure *\/\r\n    .affiliate-disclosure {\r\n        font-size: 0.75em;\r\n        color: #565959;\r\n        text-align: center;\r\n        margin-top: 5px;\r\n    }\r\n\r\n    \/* Responsive *\/\r\n    @media (max-width: 600px) {\r\n        .amazon-ad-table thead { display: none; }\r\n        .amazon-ad-table tr { display: flex; flex-direction: column; border-bottom: 2px solid #ddd; padding: 10px; }\r\n        .amazon-ad-table td { width: 100%; border: none; padding: 5px 0; text-align: center; }\r\n        .col-desc { text-align: center; }\r\n    }\r\n<\/style>\r\n<table class=\"amazon-ad-table\">\r\n    <thead>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <th>Description<\/th>\r\n            <th>Action<\/th>\r\n        <\/tr>\r\n    <\/thead>\r\n    <tbody>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td class=\"col-desc\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0553380168?tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"product-title\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">A Brief History of Time<\/a>\r\n                <div class=\"product-author\">by Stephen Hawking<\/div>\r\n                <p class=\"product-blurb\">A landmark volume in science writing exploring cosmology, black holes, and the nature of the universe in accessible language.<\/p>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n            <td class=\"col-action\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0553380168?tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"amazon-button\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Check Price<\/a>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n        <\/tr>\r\n\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td class=\"col-desc\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0393609391?tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"product-title\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Astrophysics for People in a Hurry<\/a>\r\n                <div class=\"product-author\">by Neil deGrasse Tyson<\/div>\r\n                <p class=\"product-blurb\">Tyson brings the universe down to Earth clearly, with wit and charm, in chapters you can read anytime, anywhere.<\/p>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n            <td class=\"col-action\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0393609391?tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"amazon-button\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Check Price<\/a>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n        <\/tr>\r\n\r\n         <tr>\r\n            <td class=\"col-desc\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/s?k=raspberry+pi+4+starter+kit&tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"product-title\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Raspberry Pi Starter Kits<\/a>\r\n                <div class=\"product-author\">Supports Computer Science Education<\/div>\r\n                <p class=\"product-blurb\">Inexpensive computers designed to promote basic computer science education. Buying kits supports this ecosystem.<\/p>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n            <td class=\"col-action\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/s?k=raspberry+pi+4+starter+kit&tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"amazon-button\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">View Options<\/a>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n        <\/tr>\r\n\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td class=\"col-desc\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0596002874?tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"product-title\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Free as in Freedom: Richard Stallman's Crusade<\/a>\r\n                <div class=\"product-author\">by Sam Williams<\/div>\r\n                <p class=\"product-blurb\">A detailed history of the free software movement, essential reading for understanding the philosophy behind open source.<\/p>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n            <td class=\"col-action\">\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0596002874?tag=vpf04-20\" class=\"amazon-button\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Check Price<\/a>\r\n            <\/td>\r\n        <\/tr>\r\n    <\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<div class=\"affiliate-disclosure\">\r\n    <p>As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases resulting from links on this page.<\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most research funding is distributed before the funded work exists. Scientists submit proposals describing what they expect to discover, how they plan to proceed, and why their future work deserves [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24296"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24296\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24297,"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24296\/revisions\/24297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-dao.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}